On Feb. 17, 2026, the Mosbacher Institute’s Borders and Migration Program hosted an installment of its The Other Side of the Border: Ties that Bind and Issues that Divide speaker series, titled “U.S.-Mexico Relations in a Changing World.” The event featured former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Antonio Garza. Welcome remarks were delivered by Dr. Maria Escobar-Lemmon, Executive Associate Dean of the Bush School and the discussion was moderated by Assistant Professor Dr. Aileen Teague.

Ambassador Garza opened with a discussion on U.S. policymakers linking issues like tariffs, migration enforcement and security cooperation in negotiations with Mexico. Drawing on his experience serving from 2002 to 2009 in the aftermath of September 11, Ambassador Garza explained that trade, migration and security have long been interconnected. While the current U.S. administration more publicly uses trade as leverage for security objectives, he argued that such linkage is not new. In terms of how linking these issues influences bilateral relations, he expressed that Mexican leadership has always recognized asymmetry in the U.S.-Mexico relationship and that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has effectively communicated Mexico’s priorities to Washington. Though tariff threats have generated uncertainty, he noted that effective tariff structures have changed little in practice.

Regarding security cooperation, Ambassador Garza stressed that countries act when interests align, pointing to post-9/11 counterterrorism and counternarcotics cooperation as an example of mutual benefit. He reflected on past security cooperation efforts and noted that progress has fluctuated depending on political alignment and trust. President Sheinbaum, he said, has positioned herself carefully, balancing domestic political realities with the need for continued bilateral cooperation. Although some view her recent security measures as reactive to U.S. pressure, Ambassador Garza emphasized that public demand within Mexico for stronger action against cartels is genuine and politically salient. He cautioned that two factors could disrupt progress: domestic political fragmentation within Mexico, particularly within the ruling Morena party and U.S. actions that undermine trust or the sense of a positive working environment. He underscored that a U.S. military intervention in Mexico would represent a clear red line and would fundamentally damage bilateral relations.

Addressing concerns about potential U.S. military action in Mexico following recent operations in Venezuela, Ambassador Garza suggested such a move is highly unlikely.

Cartel networks, he noted, are diffuse and deeply embedded, making them ill-suited to a single strike. He suggested that greater regional leadership in Latin America several years ago might have altered the trajectory in Venezuela and argued that effective coalition-building requires patience and sustained diplomatic investment.

Turning to trade, Ambassador Garza expressed cautious optimism about the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). While he does not expect the process to be smooth or quickly resolved, he suggested that North America’s integrated supply chains and tight labor markets will push policymakers toward pragmatic solutions. He maintained that labor standards enforcement, visa policy and competitiveness concerns are likely to feature prominently in negotiations. Ultimately, he argued, there is strategic wisdom in viewing North America as a region and building from a “base of strength” through deeper integration rather than fragmentation.

The discussion concluded with questions from the audience on China’s growing presence in Mexico and lessons from Ambassador Garza’s tenure. He noted that while Chinese automotive exports to Mexico are visible, Mexico’s manufacturing sector remains competitive rather than complementary with China’s and Mexico’s greatest comparative advantage remains its deep integration with the U.S. economy. Asked what advice he would offer the next U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Garza emphasized discretion, preparation and optimism, encouraging future leaders to understand the issues deeply, trust the interagency team and recognize the enduring importance of a safe, secure and prosperous Mexico for both countries.

Watch the event on YouTube: tx.ag/WgIDQlF