Decision Making Under Conditions of Uncertainty: Experimental Assessment of Decision Models
Funder: National Defense University (NDU)
Leaders make numerous decisions about the appropriate utilization of complex scientific and technological innovations almost daily. These decisions are especially problematic because of the difficulty in assessing risks, benefits, costs, and side effects of these new discoveries. However, decisions related to the proper investment, implementation, and deployment of technological innovation are often made by decision makers with only limited information and scientific expertise. The challenge is, therefore, to make the best possible decision, with the best information available, using the best decision-making technique possible, even in the face of limited information and uncertain outcome.
This research sheds light on the way people make decisions with limited information in the area of science and technology using a relatively new methodology. Computerized process tracing is used in an experimental setting via a new technology (the Decision Board Process Tracer). It allows observation and recording of various indicators of an individual's (and/or group's) choice strategy. Some of the unique capabilities of the computerized decision process tracers are their ability to 1) detect various decision strategies, 2) test the effects of multiple situational and personal factors on decision processing and outcomes, and 3) deal with counterfactual data and scenarios. They can also serve as training devices.
A series of decision-making models are being tested in both academic and actual decision-maker environments. The subjects include university students and more experienced decision makers working in military environments. This research will add to the understanding of how the framing of scientific and technological information influences decision making and the nature of the interplay between analytic information and other variables that influence decision makers.
The research team included principal investigator, Dr. Arnold Vedlitz (ISTPP director/political science); co-principal investigators, Dr. Alex Mintz (political science), Dr. Letitia T. Alston (ISTPP associate director/sociology), and Dr. Roger J. Channing (NDU); and research scientists, Dr. Steven B. Redd (political science/University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee), Dr. Mark K. Davis (NDU), Dr. Barton J. Michelson (NDU), and Dr. Xinsheng Liu (ISTPP).
