Potential Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Infrastructure and Systems in the Central U.S. Gulf Coast: Phase I
Funder: U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT)
The focus of this study is to develop knowledge and tools that will assist transportation decision makers in incorporating information about environmental and climate trends into transportation planning, design, engineering, and operational decisions. The Gulf Coast Study is expected to provide the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) a prototype for nationwide analysis of the potential risks to transportation from climate change and variability, and the range of adaptation strategies that may be considered to respond to these sensitivities. The Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy and the University of New Orleans are acting as subcontractors for the USGS on this project and will provide a variety of technical and analytical services in conjunction with the larger research team, the USGS, and representatives from the USDOT.
ISTPP is currently participating in a major climate change and variability research study, in conjunction with the USGS, for the USDOT. This study is one of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Synthesis and Assessment Product projects. The findings of this study will directly inform local and regional transportation decision makers within the study region, and will also contribute to research methodologies in this new area of investigation that can be applied nationwide. The specific purposes of this research are the following:
- to develop region-specific knowledge about the risks and sensitivities to transportation in the Gulf Coast area due to climate changes and variability, through an in-depth synthesis and analysis of existing data;
- to assess the relative significance of these risks and vulnerabilities to transportation decision makers in the Gulf Coast region, and to identify potential strategies for adaptation that will reduce risks and enhance the resilience of transportation infrastructure and services;
- to contribute to the development of methods and approaches for regional risk and sensitivity analysis that can be applied to other regions and nationwide;
- to assist transportation decision makers in assessing risks and evaluating adaptation and response strategies; and
- to identify or develop decision support tools or procedures that enable transportation decision makers to integrate information about environmental trends, climate variability, and climate change into transportation planning and design processes.
Research is being conducted in Phase I that will provide an integrated overview of climate and weather trends and projections in the northern Gulf Coast region with other relevant environmental, economic, and demographic data; assess the potential implications of these changes for transportation infrastructure and facilities; and conduct an initial assessment of relative risks and vulnerability in the region. An important component of Phase I is the compilation of data such as shoreline erosion, land use change, and land surface elevation trends, which stem from processes that are independent of climate but have a great influence over the impacts of sea level rise and climatic variability on transportation in low-lying coastal areas. These factors can lead to unique vulnerabilities when combined with increased sea level or precipitation, but they are poorly understood in terms of their cumulative impacts on transportation infrastructure. This is the first study to attempt to integrate the suite of climate and non-climate variables into decision-support tools for the transportation sector.
The expected products of Phase I research are these:
- a compilation and synthesis of existing weather and climate trends and model projections; economic data; and social, political, and demographic data with locations of key infrastructure and facilities. This information will be presented through geographical information system (GIS) mapping products. The data will include the factors listed below.
- an assessment of regional and local trends in sea level, subsidence, erosion, stream flow, and other related factors that influence the vulnerability of existing transportation infrastructure;
- a ranking of the potential impact of various climate change factors in the Gulf Coast, relative to their significance to transportation;
- a preliminary assessment of the vulnerability of transportation systems due to climate changes in the Gulf Coast;
- a conceptual risk and vulnerability model for decision makers; and
- recommendation of specific locations for in-depth analysis focusing on the impacts of selected climate change factors.
For additional information, visit the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) website: www.climatescience.gov. This research is part of Project No. 4.7.
The research team is led by principal investigator, Dr. Virginia Burkett, chief of the Forest Ecology Branch at the National Wetlands Research Center (NWRC) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Department of Interior (DOI). ISTPP team members include co-principal investigator, Dr. Eric Lindquist, ISTPP associate research scientist (political science); co-principal investigator, Dr. Ronald R. Hagelman III, assistant professor, Department of Geography, University of New Orleans; and ISTPP director, Dr. Arnold Vedlitz (political science).
Other project team members are Dr. Thomas We. Doyle, a systems ecologist in the Forest Ecology branch at the National Wetlands Research Center, USGS/DOI; Kay Drucker, M.S., transportation specialist at the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), DOI; Royce L. Fontenot, M.S., coordinator of the Louisiana Agriclimatic Information System for the Louisiana State University Ag Center; Stephen B. Hartley, M.S., senior geographer at the USGS National Wetlands Research Center; Robert C. Hyman, M.S., transportation analyst at Cambridge Systematics; Robert Kafalenos, M.A., air quality specialist at the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), USDOT; Barry D. Keim, Ph.D., Louisiana State climatologist, professor at Louisiana State University; Joan Kester, contracted GIS specialist by IAP World Services, Inc., at the USGS NWRC in Lafayette, LA; Joanne R. Potter, M.C.P., senior associate, Cambridge Systematics; Michael J. Savonis, M.R.P., FHWA transportation/air quality research program; Matthew Sheppard, M.A., transportation geospatial specialist, BTS; Ivor Van Heerden, Ph.D., director of the Center for the Study of Public Health Impacts of Hurricanes.
